By Warren Meyer
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Extra resources for A Skeptical Layman’s Guide to Anthropogenic Global Warming
G whether water is a net positive or negative feedback) in these processes. And this is just one example of the many, many feedback loops that scientists are able to posit but not prove. And climate scientists are coming up with numerous other positive feedback loops. As one author put it: Regardless, climate models are made interesting by the inclusion of "positive feedbacks" (multiplier effects) so that a small temperature increment expected from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide invokes large increases in water vapor, which seem to produce exponential rather than logarithmic temperature response in the models.
Next year’s value is highly dependent on this year’s value). 00 is perfect). The same relationship is found between the Earth’s temperature anomalies and the solar output. ” The temporal lag is needed to account for the large mass of Neptune that would require years to adjust to any changes in solar output. ” More on the sun's variance and climate change here. Cosmic Rays One of the problems with irradiance as a driver for climate change is that though the changes seem to be fairly well correlated with the temperature anomaly, many scientists think the magnitude is too small to totally account for temperature changes.
It was once observed that if an old AFL football team wins the Superbowl, a bear market will ensue on Wall Street in the next year, while an NFL team victory presaged a bull market. As of 1997, this correlation held for 28 of the last 31 years, a far better prediction record than that of any Wall Street analyst. But of course this correlation was spurious, and in the next 4 years it was wrong every time. Had someone built a financial model on this indicator, it would have looked great when he ran it against history, but he would have lost his shirt using it.
A Skeptical Layman’s Guide to Anthropogenic Global Warming by Warren Meyer